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  1. We investigated environmental, landscape, and microbial factors that could structure the spatiotemporal variability in the nontarget chemical composition of four riverine systems in the Oregon Coast Range, USA. We hypothesized that the nontarget chemical composition in river water would be structured by broad-scale landscape gradients in each watershed. Instead, only a weak relationship existed between the nontarget chemical composition and land cover gradients. Overall, the effects of microbial communities and environmental variables on chemical composition were nearly twice as large as those of the landscape, and much of the influence of environmental variables on the chemical composition was mediated through the microbial community (i.e., environment affects microbes, which affect chemicals). Therefore, we found little evidence to support our hypothesis that chemical spatiotemporal variability was related to broad-scale landscape gradients. Instead, we found qualitative and quantitative evidence to suggest that chemical spatiotemporal variability of these rivers is controlled by changes in microbial and seasonal hydrologic processes. While the contributions of discrete chemical sources are undeniable, water chemistry is undoubtedly impacted by broad-scale continuous sources. Our results suggest that diagnostic chemical signatures can be developed to monitor ecosystem processes, which are otherwise challenging or impossible to study with existing off-the-shelf sensors. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available May 1, 2024
  2. A frequent goal of chemical forensic analyses is to select a panel of diagnostic chemical featurescolloquially termed a chemical fingerprintthat can predict the presence of a source in a novel sample. However, most of the developed chemical fingerprinting workflows are qualitative in nature. Herein, we report on a quantitative machine learning workflow. Grab samples (n = 51) were collected from five chemical sources, including agricultural runoff, headwaters, livestock manure, (sub)urban runoff, and municipal wastewater. Support vector classification was used to select the top 10, 25, 50, and 100 chemical features that best discriminate each source from all others. The cross-validation balanced accuracy was 92− 100% for all sources (n = 1,000 iterations). When screening for diagnostic features from each source in samples collected from four local creeks, presence probabilities were low for all sources, except for wastewater at two downstream locations in a single creek. Upon closer investigation, a wastewater treatment facility was located ∼3 km upstream of the nearest sample location. In addition, using simulated in silico mixtures, the workflow can distinguish presence and absence of some sources at 10,000-fold dilutions. These results strongly suggest that this workflow can select diagnostic subsets of chemical features that can be used to quantitatively predict the presence/absence of various sources at trace levels in the environment. 
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